Where Have All The Kindle Killers Gone?

It’s a testament to the dominance of the Amazon Kindle reader that, for quite some time, any new reader which showed the slightest amount of promise was instantly christened the “Kindle killer”. The Kindle was, and still is, the benchmark against which other readers are measured.

To be fair to the competition, there was a period, during 2010, when the Kindle 2.0 was starting to look a little bit tired in comparison with some of the more modern readers being released at the time.

However, when Amazon released the Kindle 3, in August of 2010, the gap between the Kindle and the chasing pack widened, if anything. Amazon’s dominance was reconfirmed and, since then, many of the putative Kindle killers have simply gone out of existence. In fact, some companies which were producing ebook readers have simply shut down their production lines – to focus on other electronic gadgets mainly.

For a while, it looked like the ebook reader market was developing into something of a two horse race between the Kindle and the Nook – with the Nook trailing in a rather distant second place. On the face of it, it did seem to appear that customers had/have a strong preference to buy their readers from the companies which they bought their books from, or at least from vendors who had a strong association with books and reading.

Pure electronics manufacturers, such as Sony for example, found it hard to either break into the market or maintain their market share. That must be particularly galling for Sony. It’s probably worth remembering that the Sony PRS reader first hit the market way back in 2006 – well in advance of the original Kindle. Despite being one of the initial entrants to the market, and despite the fact that Sony have an entire family of excellent ebook readers, the Kindle and the Nook seem to get all of the headlines – and the lion’s share of the market to boot.

However, there have been a couple of developments in recent weeks which could, if not removing Amazon from the top spot perhaps, see some significant changes in the market – and possibly see a different split in market share being established.

Barnes And Noble Update The Nook Reader

The first big change in the market came when Barnes and Noble released an updated and upgraded version of their Nook reader. The new Nook features a touch control e-ink technology display, which many people will find easier and more intuitive to use. It also conforms with customer expectations. We are accustomed to personal electronic devices with touch screen control these days. It’s what we expect.

The touch screen controls also mean that there is no need for a QWERTY keypad. The end result of this is that the Nook can be made smaller and lighter – and it is approximately an inch shorter and an ounce lighter than the Kindle. Again, that’s something which many potential buyers will find very appealing.

The new Nook also has a slot for an SD memory card, which allows the memory to be boosted to 32GB. That’s enough for about 28,000 books – which should be enough to keep you going for a while. However, the on-board memory is less than the Kindle’s – 2GB compared to 4GB.

The Nook is available in Wi-Fi only configuration and sells for $139, the same price as the Kindle 3 Wi-Fi model. Whilst it may not be a Kindle killer, it is certainly a big step in the right direction for Barnes and Noble and should make the Kindle vs Nook battle less of an unequal struggle. It’s easy to imagine that B&N could close the gap on the Kindle in the near future.

An inch shorter - an ounce lighter

The iRiver Story HD Reader

Within a fortnight of the new Nook hitting the market, the iRiver Story HD reader was launched. It must have put Barnes and Noble’s gas at a peep every bit as much as it did Amazon’s.

From a technical perspective, the breaking news regarding the Story HD is the fact that it boasts the first ever XGA e-ink display available on the market. With a resolution of 1024 x 768, it beats the 800 x 600 of both the Kindle and the Nook, providing 63% more pixels which may be useful for anyone who wants to read books which contain detailed drawings and illustrations.

Like the Nook, the Story HD has a slot for an SD memory card. Unlike the Nook, it retains the QWERTY keypad. Also like the Nook, it is available only as a Wi-Fi reader.

However, the big news with the Story HD is the fact that it is the result of a partnership between iRiver and Google. It’s the first ebook reader to be fully integrated with the Google eBookstore – and that could make all the difference. Story users will be able to select books from the Google store and download them direct to their reader via Wi-Fi.

As mentioned previously, ebook reader buyers seem to be displaying a preference for buying their readers from a company with a strong link to books and reading. The tie up between iRiver and Google could just provide that link and boost sales of the reader whilst simultaneously helping to promote Google’s ebookstore.

The Story HD is currently on sale for $139.99.

Is It Time For Amazon To Launch The Kindle 4?

The Kindle remains the market leader, and very much the benchmark against which other readers will be measured. Amazon offer more variants of the Kindle, Wi-Fi, Wi-Fi plus 3G and, of course, the “Kindle with Special Offers” edition which lets customers get a $25 discount in return for accepting advertising on the screen saver pages. That amount of customer choice and pricing differential is more than enough to keep Amazon at the top of the heap, in the short term at least.

However, the Kindle 3 was released last August and is now a year old – that’s a fair old time in the world of personal electronics where annual updates and built in obsolescence are very much the norm. As good as it is, and as successful as it has been for Amazon, it might just be time for the Kindle 3 to be replaced. It might be time for Amazon to get a move on and release the Kindle 4.

Previous Kindle release dates have been as shown below:

• Original Kindle – November 2007
• Kindle 2.0 – February 2009
• Kindle 3 – August 2010

Looking at those dates, and without making any allowance for heightened competition in the market, you might expect the Kindle 4 to hit the street sometime between November 2011 and February 2012. Factor in some weighting for increased competition and you would imagine that Amazon would be aiming for a release towards the front end of that window.

Another big consideration is the fact that the Kindle has, in its short lifespan, established a tradition of selling in enormous quantities over the Christmas period. A pre-Christmas launch would boost sales even further. If, on the other hand, consumers suspected that there was to be a new upgraded Kindle available in the early part of the following year, they might hold off for that. Dad would get a woolly jumper or a pair of socks and Kindle sales might be negatively affected at Amazon’s busiest, and most profitable, time of the year.

Therefore, a Kindle 4 launch well before Christmas would make a lot of sense.

What Features Might The Kindle 4 Include?

Kindle 4 E-Ink Technology Display

Both the Nook and the Story HD have raised the bar somewhat in the display area. The Kindle 4 will probably have an XGA display with resolution of 1024 x 768 to put it on an equal footing with the Story HD. Touch screen controls seem to be highly probable also.

Whether or not it will be a color e-ink display is more dubious. For most people, who read novels on their Kindle, lack of color is not a major drawback. After all, reading a “real” book would consist of reading black text on a white background.

Readers who want to read newspapers and magazines might benefit from a color screen – and Amazon would certainly love to tap into that market. However, reading newspapers and magazines would generally be a less prolonged exercise than reading a novel. An e-ink display might not be such a big benefit in such a case. Amazon might decide to cater for this market sector using their much anticipated Amazon table computer.

So, the most probable scenario is that the Kindle 4 will come with an XGA e-ink display, in monochrome only.

SD Memory Card Slot

The original Kindle had a memory card slot, which Amazon omitted on the Kindle 2.0, and have not seen fit to reinstate on the Kindle 3. It’s debatable how much value resurrecting this now would offer to most customers. The Kindle’s 4GB is enough for 3,500 books – which should satisfy the vast majority of people.

Adding a memory slot would increase the cost of the reader, which could possibly be partially offset by reducing the on-board memory to something like 2GB. It’s unlikely to be a major selling point though, so there’s no reason to suppose that it will be a feature included on the Kindle 4.

Support For Other Ebook Formats

One of the criticisms commonly leveled at the Kindle  is the fact that it doesn’t support the ePub ebook format. However, Amazon has gone a long way to allaying some people’s concerns about losing access to their ebook collection if they change reader by making a number of Kindle apps available to allow Kindle books to be read on other devices. The fact that the Kindle is the runaway market leader and that it is extremely improbable that Amazon would discontinue production is another comforting factor.

In all probability, Amazon will, at some point in future, provide ePub support. But not when the Kindle 4 is released.

Other Potential Features

Amazon seems to have a good understanding of what their potential Kindle buyers value. they delighted many Kindle owners by the seemingly small step of making “real” page numbers available instead of a percentage complete value recently. The ability to lend Kindle books to other owners, the possibility of saving money by renting, rather than buying, textbooks on the Kindle, the facility to borrow Kindle books from public lending libraries, are all examples of, seemingly minor, enhancements which have proven to be highly valued by Kindle users.

Don’t be surprised if the Kindle 4 includes a few minor tweaks which make a difference to the end user satisfaction.

Kindle 4 Predictions

• Will be launched (well) in advance of Christmas 2011.
• Will include a touch screen, monochrome, XGA e-ink display.
• Will be smaller and lighter than the Kindle 3.
• Will have faster page turns and a longer battery life.
• Will not include a slot for an SD memory card.
• Will support, at least at launch, Kindle books and PDF files.
• Will continue to be the market leading ebook reader.

Back to ebook reader home – or have a look at Kindle 4   Kindle Touch   Kindle Fire